双重不确定条件下的投资行为——基于有限信息、有限理性的分析

Investment Under Dual Uncertainty——the Perspective of Limited Information and Rationality

在投资人面临条件以及策略的双重不确定时,个人信息结构的差异以及对于对手信息的感知的差异也会影响投资人的投资行为。本文针对战略框架,在条件不确定下的不可逆投资的实物期权理论中引入投资主体有限理性以及信息的有限性,分析主体的投资决策行为。本文将基于建立一些简单模型来进行理论阐述,而不追求对模型进行复杂而精确的数学假设与详细的过程推导。

Under the conditional and strategic uncertainty, investor＇s behaviour will be affected by their different personal information structure and their perceptual differences of the Competitor＇s information. In the strategic framework of the real options theory about the Irreversible Investment under uncertainty, we analyse the investor＇s decision-making behaviour, and we analyse limited rationality and limited information . This paper focus on the establishment of some simple descriptive models , not the complex of precise mathematical hypothesis and the details of the process of derivation.