我国商品住房价格泡沫研究

On Commercial Housing Price Foam in China

通过资本边际收益法对2002—2010年的全国商品房价格泡沫进行测算,我们发现,就全国而言,2002—2010年间,我国商品住房市场价格运行主要经历了两个阶段。第一阶段是2002—2003年,此期间我国商品住房价格无泡沫运行。第二阶段是2004—2010年,从2004年开始,我国开始出现商品住房价格泡沫,除2006年商品住房价格泡沫不明显外,其余每年我国商品住房市场均出现泡沫。鉴于这种情况,我们分别选择时间序列模型和面板数据模型对全国以及主要城市的商品住房价格泡沫形成因素进行实证分析。

This article calculated the national commercial housing price foam in 2002--2010 years through the capital marginal profit method. We found that in 2002--2010, the commercial housing market price has undergone two major stages. The first stage was in 2002--2003 years, during this period, the housing price is no foam. The second stage was in 2004--2010 years, since 2004, the commodity housing price foam appeared, housing price foam was obscurely except in 2006, and the other years the commodity housing market foam were existed. In view of this, we makes an empirical analysis on the {acts of commodity housing price foam of the whole nation and the main city by choosing the time series model and panel data model respectively.