江苏省居民个人收入流动性实证分析

Empirical Study on the Income Mobility in Jiangsu Province

利用1989-2009年间CHNS调查数据,对江苏省居民个人的收入流动性进行了经验分析,研究发现:(1)尽管在1997-2000年间居民个人收入流动性略有上升,但是整体上考察期内江苏省居民个人的收入流动性呈现出不断下降且趋于稳定的趋势特征;(2)中间阶层的居民较最穷和最富两个收入阶层具有更高的收入流动性;(3)农村居民个人收入流动性始终大于同时段城镇居民个人收入流动性;(4)1993年以后收入流动性不利于江苏省居民个人收入地位的改善,收入顶层居民的收入地位固定化趋势较为明显,同时江苏省尚未形成一个较为稳定的中等收入阶层。最后,本文指出江苏省应将提高居民收入流动性和培育中等收入阶层作为政策的着力点。

Based on the panel data extracted from the CHNS, this paper analyzes the income mobility in Jiangsu province from 1989 to 2009. The major findings are： （1） Except the period of 1997 -2000, the income mobility presented a tendency of continuously decreased , and then kept stable; （2） Mobility in the middle income group was higher than others; （3） Compared to the ur- ban area, income mobility in the rural area was higher during 1989 -2009; （4） The structure of in- come mobility was disadvantageous to improve most individual income status after 1993, income sta- tus of residents in the top income trended more obvious fixed, and Jiangsu Province has not formed a relatively stable middle-income class. Finally, this article points out that improving the income mob- ility and forming middle-income class should be the focus of policy.