利率下调对我国宏观经济走势的影响:实证分析

A Case Study:the Effect of Downwardness of Interest On the Trend of China's Macro-economy

In order for interest to fit the needs of national economic growth,China,since 1996,has adjusted downward deposit interest rate for seven times,on May 1,1996;Aug 23,1996;Oct 23,1997;Mar 25,1998;Jul 1,1998;Dec 7,1998;Jun 10,1999 respectively.What’s more,beginning from Nov 1,1999,interest tax will be levied.Judging by some economic indicators reached,this downwordness,however,has failed to bring about the effect expected:the adjustment leverage of interest rate(e.g.this downwordness function performed in promoting people’s consumption,or in whipping up demand for investment)has not been so obvious.This is both because the actual interest rate has remained high although the nominal has kept dropping,and because the function of interest rate as a level has been constrained by many factors such as residents’;consumption structure,the expectation of low investment return,and too few investment channels.Nevertheless,it remains to us to make a further case study,in order that we may understand completely the result of this downward interest rate,especially the future impact thereof upon China’s macro-economy.And this paper will,by careful meticulous calculation and a quantitative analysis and a case study,make a systematic research on the relationship between the downwordness of interest rate and the trend of china’s

In order for interest to fit the needs of national economic growth,China,since 1996,has adjusted downward deposit interest rate for seven times,on May 1,1996;Aug 23,1996;Oct 23,1997;Mar 25,1998;Jul 1,1998;Dec 7,1998;Jun 10,1999 respectively.What's more,beginning from Nov 1,1999,interest tax will be levied.Judging by some economic indicators reached,this downwordness,however,has failed to bring about the effect expected:the adjustment leverage of interest rate(e.g.this downwordness function performed in promoting people's consumption,or in whipping up demand for investment)has not been so obvious.This is both because the actual interest rate has remained high although the nominal has kept dropping,and because the function of interest rate as a level has been constrained by many factors such as residents';consumption structure,the expectation of low investment return,and too few investment channels.Nevertheless,it remains to us to make a further case study,in order that we may understand completely the result of this downward interest rate,especially the future impact thereof upon China's macro-economy.And this paper will,by careful meticulous calculation and a quantitative analysis and a case study,make a systematic research on the relationship between the downwordness of interest rate and the trend of china's macro-economy