从两起社会性恐慌事件透视西汉晚期的社会危机

Social Crisis in Late Western Han Dynasty Viewed from Two Panic Events

成帝建始三年的"闹洪水"和哀帝建平四年的"传行诏筹",是两起典型的群体性恐慌事件。"闹洪水"发生在京城,一天之内从社会下层一直闹到皇宫里。"传行诏筹"从春天闹腾到秋天,波及全国四分之一的地方,是一起经过精心组织、妖言不断放大而制造出来的群体性事件。两个事件清楚地表明,无论社会下层还是上流社会都面临着巨大的生存危机,社会缺乏安全感,一有风吹草动就恐慌起来。事件发生后,很快有人拿它来指责政敌,而不是采取有效措施来解决实际问题、化解社会矛盾、消弭民怨。面对此起彼伏的群体性事件,西汉各级衙门直至朝廷都得过且过、搪塞应付,采取欺下瞒上、不报、漏报、少报等办法来敷衍塞责,直到乱局不可收拾。这说明,经过二百年的运转,西汉王朝这架专制机器已经彻底腐朽,小修小补不被允许,改弦更张更不可能,王朝政治陷进了死局。体制内的变革实在行不通时,有人就在体制外另辟蹊径,社会危机最终由绿林、赤眉起义集中表达出来,为西汉王朝和新莽时代的彻底终结划上了句号。

In the late Western Hart Dynasty, two events caused panic among the masses as well as in the imperial court. The first resulted from a flood, and panic spread very quickly from the common people to the court within one day. The second was a plot careful- ly framed by the upper class people to attack their political opponents. When the events occurred, officials at all levels tried to shift re- sponsibility onto others and even took the chance to fabricate charges against their foes. The panic caused by the events shows that the despotic machine of the Western Han Dynasty, after operating for more than 200 years, was doomed to collapse.