水库诱发地震震级预测的统计研究

A statistical study on the prediction of maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes

基于收集到的全球102例水库及已发地震的资料,应用隶属函数方法综合分析了水库基本属性、震中区岩性、库坝区基本烈度和震中区断层类型等与水库诱发地震之间的关系,从统计学角度给出了水库诱发最大地震震级的判定方法.通过回溯检验和费舍尔判别检验给出了预测震级的相对误差和正确识别率,总体预测效果较好,可为将来水库的设防和最大地震震级的判定提供统计学上的依据.

Based on the collected data of 102 global reservoir-induced earth- quakes and by using the method of membership function analysis, we comprehensively analyzed the relationship between reservoir-induced earthquakes and basic properties of the reservoir, lithology of the epicentral region, basic seismic intensity in the reservoir region and fault types of the epicentral region. From a statistical point of view, a method of predicting the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes is proposed. Through the Fisher discriminant analysis and a retrospective test, the relative error of the predicted magnitude and correct recognition ratio are given. The overall prediction result is rather satisfactory and can provide a statistical basis for reservoir seismic fortification and judgment of the possible maximum earthquake magnitude in the future.