GIS-MCE技术在农业气象灾害风险评价中的应用

GIS-MCE Approach to Evaluate Agriculture Meteorological Disaster Risk

气象灾害风险评价涉及多源、多维、多尺度空间数据与社会经济统计数据,对应用GIS结合MCE技术进行农业气象灾害风险评价进行了研究。利用特尔菲专家测定法建立评价准则,利用空间划分技术建立评价单元,利用属性值空间化技术实现对气象灾害影响因素空间分布特征进行描述,以空间叠置计算获得多准则条件下空间单元决策目标分值,从而实现区域气象灾害风险区划。研究表明,GIS结合MCE技术能够较好地整合与气象灾害风险评价相关的各类空间数据和社会统计数据,实现气象灾害风险的定量化评价。以冰雪灾害致灾因子评价为例,证明以上技术方法具有可行性。

Meteorological disaster risk assessment is involved with multi-source, multi-dimensional, multi- scale spatial data and socio-economic statistical data. Key technologies of evaluating agriculture meteoro- logical disaster risk with GIS-MCE are introduced, including establishing evaluation criteria and weights by Delphi method, obtaining the spatial distribution of factors of the meteorological disasters by diffusing spa- tial attribute value and implementing evaluation by spatial overlay calculation. The results indicated that the technology of GIS-MCE can combine multiple source information associating with agriculture meteoro- logical disaster risk and achieve measurable results. As an example, evaluation on meteorological disaster risk with GIS-MCE is shown in the article.