2012年下半年中国A股市场分析

ANALYSIS ON CHINA'S A-SHARE MARKET IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2012

本文分析了2012年下半年影响中国A股市场的主要因素。首先简要回顾了2012年上半年中国A股市场表现;然后着重分析了影响2012年下半年中国A股的主要因素。本文的主要结论是:由于国内外宏观经济的巨大风险,未来一段时间A股将低位震荡,直到中国政府采取必要且充分的政策,刺激政策短期内可以提升实体经济,从而有助于A股反弹。但从中长期看,只有当制度性红利释放,中国经济结构性失衡改善,A股才能迎来真正的上涨行情。

This paper investigated the main factors which drove China＇s A-share market in the second half of 2012. It reviewed briefly A-share market performance in the first half of 2012, and analyzed the main factors which drove China A-share market in the second half of 2012. The results showed that A- share market would continue to be bumpy unless enough stimulus to be implement. Policy stimulus could make economic recovery in short run and share market rebound. But in long run, only institutional innova- tion could improve economical structural imbalance and A-Share market would rise steadily.