以中国为中心的东亚经济新秩序正在浮现

The Emerging China-Centric East Asian Economic Order

东亚是指中国、日本和四个新兴工业经济体(韩国、台湾、香港、台湾和新加坡),以及东盟经济体。东亚第一波高增长由日本引领,并迅速扩散到四个新兴工业化经济体和一些东盟国家。这是第一代东亚共同体的崛起。东亚第二波高增长是由中国引领的,目前正被扩散到整个东亚区域。比较而言,中国引领的第二代东亚共同体在经济上比日本引领的第一代更为强大。中国不仅是东亚增长的引擎,也是区域经济整合的催化剂。然后,在未来相当长的时期内,中国还不能改变东亚地缘政治的形势。中国"和平崛起"这一理念并未得到东亚国家的广泛认同。中国与其他东亚经济体的总体关系仍将是"政冷经热"的局面。美国不断在东亚增强其政治和战略地位,使得中国与其他东亚经济体的新兴关系更为复杂化。因此,东亚现有的地区秩序将继续被不确定性和不稳定性因素所破坏。东亚共同体不仅需要建立在可持续的经济增长和地区整合的基础上,还需要建立在相互具有和睦安全关系的基础之上,因此在未来还有很长的路要走。

East Asia is conventionally defined to comprise China and Japan, the four NIEs of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, and the ASEAN economies. The first wave of EA＇s （EA-I） high growth was led by Japan, and it soon spread to the four NIEs and some ASEAN economies. The second wave of EA＇s high growth was led by China and it is currently spreading into the whole EA region. The second rise of East Asia （EA- II） is economically much more formidable than EA-I because of China＇s vast economic scale compounded by its high speed. Increasingly, China＇s economy operates not just as an engine of growth for the region, but also a catalyst for regional economic integration. However, for a long time, China will not be able to shape the region＇s geo-political landscape. China＇s message of ＂peaceful rise＂ has not been unequivocally accepted in the re- gion. China＇s overall relations with other EA economies will continue to be ＂hot in economics and cold in poli- tics＂ . The growing political and strategic role of the US has further complicated China＇s emerging relations with other EA economies in the region. The existing regional order in EA will, therefore, continue to be marred by uncertainty and instability. It is still a long way from the East Asian Community, which is to be based on not just sustainable economic growth and increasing integration, but also harmonious security relations.