东亚新兴经济体经济周期特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Business Cycles of East Asian Emerging Economies

东亚新兴经济体经济周期的波动性有不断减弱的趋势,但在一些突发事件如东南亚金融危机等事件的影响下,经济波动可能会加剧。东亚经济周期波动是非对称的,且大多数国家(地区)的非对称性都表现为经济周期波动的上升阶段长于下降阶段。进入20世纪90年代,尤其是2000年后,东亚新兴经济体的经济周期波动呈现了较强的相关性和同步性,2001年以后,东亚新兴经济体与世界经济周期波动之间也呈现出较强的同步性。

The result shows that the volatility of the business cycles of East Asian Emerging Economies shows a downward tendency, while the economic fluctuation may be intensified under the influence of unexpect- ed incidents such as South-East Asia crisis. What＇s more, the business cycles of the economies are unsymmetrical ones and the ascent stages are much longer than the descent stages. The correlation of the business cycles among the economies has been strengthened since 1990s, especially after 2000. In addition, the fluctuation of world economy and the East Asian Emerging Economies has a strong synchronization since 2001.