公司治理视角下基于VPRS的公司经营困境预警

The Prediction Research on Financial Distress of Listed Companies Based on VPRS Theory from the View of Corporate Governance

从公司治理的角度,构建了一套比较全面的综合预警指标体系。以2006-2009年首次被ST的160家上市公司及其配对公司作为研究样本,基于变精度粗糙集理论(VPRS),分别构建仅包含财务指标和包含所有指标的上市公司经营困境预警模型。通过理论分析和实证研究发现:健康公司和困境公司在早期的公司治理方面就存在着显著差异,晚期差异逐渐减小;加入公司治理变量后的变精度粗糙集模型的预测精度得到了提高;仅包含财务数据的模型在经营困境的晚期预测精度较高,早期预测效果不佳;对早期预测来说,包含财务指标和公司治理指标等多方面因素的模型更加适合。

This paper constructs a more comprehensive indicator system from the prospective of corporate governance.With the use of a sample of 160 ＂ST＂ listed companies and their partnership samples through years 2006-2009,based on the Various Precision Rough Set theory,this paper sets up prediction models of listed companies’ business distress and contrasts the effects of the way using corporate governance index with the way without using corporate governance index.Finally,the paper gets these conclusions as follows：there are significant difference in early corporate governance factors between the healthy companies and the failure ones.The predicting ability of the model in which corporate governance indicators are introduced is better than that of the model containing the financial indictors only;at the late stage in business distress,the financial indicators show great predicting ability while at the early stage its ability falls heavily.The model considering both the corporate governance and financial indictors are more suitable for early stage prediction.