FDI产业空间自相关与空间集聚——再论为什么FDI不集聚西部

Spatial Dependence and Agglomeration of FDI industries:the Re-examination of Why FDI does not Agglomeration in Western China

外商直接投资(FDI)空间依赖性已得到越来越多文献的证实,但大多数文献都忽略了FDI产业空间依赖性。本文把我国FDI产业分为B类、C1类、C2类和D类四类产业,并统计检验2003年、2008年我国FDI产业空间相关性和集聚强度。结果表明,B类和D类FDI产业为非空间自相关性集聚,而C1类、C2类FDI产业为空间自相关性集聚,高—高地区群都分布在东部,绝大部分西部地区为低—低型地区,因此,没有得到东部FDI制造业的溢出效应,是FDI产业难以西进的主要原因。目前,FDI产业有扩散趋势,我国要按分类产业制定有效的政策,因势利导FDI产业合理分布,以缩小区域发展差距。

The spatial dependence of FDI has been confirmed by more and more studies, but most of them neg- lected the dependence of FDI industries. With the data of 2003 - 2008, we divide China＇s FDI industries into four categories, i.e. mining （ B-type ）, low-ended manufacturing （ C 1 -type） , high-ended manufacturing （ Ca-type） and u- tilities（D-type） industries and test empirically their respective spatial correlation and agglomeration one by one. The results indicate that from the perspective of industry distribution, most FDI industries belong to C2-type in- dustries（ over 50% ）, while over 40% of the FDI industries belong to Cl-type and less than 4% belong to B and D- type. From the perspective of spatial contribution, the majority of FDI agglomerated in eastern regions and only a small proportion of FDI agglomerated in central and western regions. We did a statistics test for the four types of FDI industries to test glomeration in 2003 lation agglomeration and 2008. The results show that B and D-type FDI their respective spatial correlation and ag- industries belong to non-spatial auto-corre- and C1 and C2-type belong to spatial correlation agglomeration. Since the CI and C2-type are four-order spatially correlated, we then divided C1 and C2-type FDI industries in- to four groups. The first quadrant is High-High group, which is a high FDI regions agglomerated with four nearly high FDI regions. The second quadrant is Low-High group, which is a low FDI regions agglomerated with four near- ly high FDI regions. The third quadrant is Low-Low group, which is a low FDI regions agglomerated with four near- ly low FDI regions. The forth quadrant is High-Low group, which is a high FDI regions agglomerated with four nearly low FDI regions. The H-H and H-L are two important groups. In 2003, 80. 69% of Cl-type FDI industries are H-H or H-L groups while in 2008 the ratio is 82.35%. In 2008, 88.81% of C2 type FDI industries are H-H or H-L groups while in 2008 the ratio is 87.34%. Most H-H groups contribute in eastern regions while most western regions are L-L regions. All in all, the FDI of manufacturing agglomerated in eastern coastal regions. Central and Southern regions have become regions which undertake the transfer and spillover of FDI. The western and Northern regions are far away from the FDI agglomeration districts, formed a clear Center-several external spatial agglomeration patterns. The transfer of the FDI in manufacturing has spatial gradients. The western region, which is far away from the sub- ject of FDI and with the central region apart, is difficult to have the transfer and spillover effect of FDI in manufac- turing. That is the main reason why FDI industries are difficult to westward. Studies have shown that the FDI industries in China are high spatial agglomerated and that the agglomeration of FDI in coastal manufacturing has been formed. This means that the increase of adjacent regions＇ attraction of FDI can increases the region＇s attraction to FDI. It can be predicted that because of the spatial agglomeration effect and radiation effects of FDI in manufacturing, coastal manufacturing accumulation regions remains the main target re- gion of FDI. The FDI of Central regions which are closer to coastal regions will increase and the gap between east- ern and central regions, central and western regions will continue even expand. At the same time, studies have also shown that, the FDI industries have divergent trends. Therefore, our country should make effective classification policy, updated the ＂directory of foreign investment in the central and western regions＂ to promote the distribution of FDI industry more rational and to bridge the developing gap between regions. The central region should accelerate and perfect the construction of industrial chain in order to form a stronger capability of industry agglomeration. Central Region should also strengthen the industry associations with cities in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta and take full advantage of the transfer and radiation effects of FDI in manufacturing in these regions, increasing and improving the quality of FDI and promoting the development of re- gional economy. At the same time, Central region should make full use of regional advantages, playing a good com- munication link in Eastern and Western regions, promoting the FDI ＂westward＂ policy and promoting the prosperity of Western region. Western region faces disadvantages and difficulties in the use of FDI in manufacturing, therefore they should develop a special foreign policy to encourage FDI flows to the mining development（ B-type industry）, and electrici- ty, water and gas（ D-type industry）development to leverage some low-end manufacturing（ C^-type industry）devel- opment. At the same time, they should further pursue and deepen the Western development policy, through im- proved infrastructure, improve the quality of labor and cooperation among cities and a series of measures to reduce the concentration of FDI and transfer costs substantially, strengthen the building of FDI supporting capacity, com- pensate for the loss of the FDI agglomeration in eastern region. Only by those ways can eastern region incentive and mobilize the FDI to westward, and the use of FDI can be expected to reach new heights.