民生福祉评价模型及增进策略——基于信度、结构效度分析和结构方程模型

A Study on Evaluation Model and Improvement Strategies of People's Livelihood and Well-being——Based on Reliability,Construct Validity Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling

本文对民生福祉的内涵及其综合性、心理适应性、动态性、层次性、文化性的五大特征进行了定义和分析,并以此为依据设计了民生福祉的指标评价体系。采用信度和结构效度分析法对该指标评价体系进行优化,然后运用结构方程模型检验该评价体系的合理性,并通过路径系数标准化处理计算出指标权重,构建了民生福祉指数(IPLW)的测算模型。最后测算了2009年全国31个省、直辖市、自治区的民生福祉指数的得分及排名情况,并给出对策建议。该测算模型有效克服了以往民生福祉评价体系上存在的主观或客观单一赋权法的弊端,研究具有较好的理论价值和实践意义。

As we know, people＇s livelihood and well-being is a hot issue now. This paper studied the people＇s livelihood and well-being by multiple perspectives of statistics, econometrics, psychology and decision science, which provided an index system and evaluation method theoretically and practically. The major results of this paper are as follows： Firstly, The paper redefined the concept of people＇s livelihood and well-being and analyzed its five characteris- tics （ comprehensive, psychological, dynamic, hierarchy, cultural）, according to which the chart of people＇s liveli- hood and well-being evaluation index was designed and optimized, and then the index evaluation system of people＇s livelihood and well-being was established. This index evaluation system was constructed based on the combination of research methods of quality and quantity, which is more scientific and objective. It could overcome the one-sided malpractice of weighting by subjective or objective methods, which could guarantee the results are scientific; Secondly, The reliability and construct validity analysis of classical test theory was applied to design the evalu- ation index chart and to optimize the index system, which also enhanced the adaptability of analysis results of struc- tural equation model（SEM）. Index weight is empowered through the method of standardization of path coefficient to construct computational model of index of people＇s livelihood and well-being（IPLW） ; Thirdly, Because of the characteristics of structural equation model, which could have latent variables and al- low the independent and dependent variables to contain measurement error, structural equation model analysis could testify the validity of the evaluation index system efficiently ; SEM can clearly reflect the relationship between the la- tent variable and the dependent variable, allows the measurement model with greater flexibility. And SEM can choose more realistic models by comparing different models. So, the index evaluation system established in this pa- per is more objectively and accurately comparing other modeling approaches; Finally, The evaluation index system and model is not only able to reflect the general state of a region＇s people＇s livelihood and wellbeing, but also the specific situations of ＂income and expense＂, ＂social security＂ and ＂living environment＂, which can help the government effectively to clarify the problems and focus on key issues and guarantee the efficient policy making and problem solving. The research has practical meaning for constructing harmonious society and improving people＇s livelihood and well-being. The paper also computed and ranked IPLW＇s values of 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government of china of 2009 through using the established index evaluation model, and five suggestions were given as follows to improve people＇s livelihood and well-being： Firstly, According to the results of the computation, People＇s living standards and wealth are still the most im- portant factors which affect the people＇s livelihood and well-being today. Central and western region of China should promote economic development in order to narrow the gap among regions and improve the level of people＇s livelihood and well-being. Secondly, Besides the income and expense is a significant index to measure people＇s livelihood and well-be- ing, environment and social security become increasingly crucial for the measurement currently. Thirdly, Statistics and construction of IPLW should meet the requirement of improvement and high level of people＇s livelihood and well-being, which provide the guidance of the improvement of it in the higher level. Fourthly, The statistics and design of IPLW should highlight the cultural and psychologically adaptive charac- teristics based on China＇s current situation. At the same time, IPLW should take into account people＇s feelings to- wards adaptions, and government should focus on the basic and strategic aspects associated with people＇s livelihood and well-being, which is close the real life of people. Finally, Social security is the foundation of improving the people＇s livelihood and well-being. Government should allocate more financial budget to the areas of social welfare, such as education, health care and so on in the future＇s work of improving people＇s livelihood.