金融市场发展、流动性需求与行业产出波动

Financial Market Development,Liquidity Need and Output Volatility of Industrial Sector

本文借鉴Rajan and Zingales(1998)的交互作用模型,研究金融市场发展对行业产出波动的影响。初步实证研究发现金融市场发展对省区行业产出波动具有显著平抑作用,且对于有较高流动性需求的行业,金融市场发展抑制行业产出波动的效果更为明显。稳健性检验显示上文结论不受变量选取的影响,且在控制了内生性问题后结论依然稳健。进一步实证研究发现金融市场发展可以通过降低单位企业产出波动性、企业数量波动性和以上两者的相关性三个方面有效降低省区行业产出波动性。本文研究结果为我国金融市场发展与经济波动关系问题提供了行业层面的证据支持。

This paper adopts interaction model initiated by Rajan and Zingales （1998）to study the relation between financial market development and output volatility of industrial sectors. Elementary empirical study indicates that the development of financial market can alleviate sector output volatility and to sector with higher liquidity need, the effect will be more remarkable. This alleviation effect will not be affected by the selection of variables, and it＇ s still stable after controlling endogenous variables. Further study shows that financial market development can decrease sector output volatility through three aspects：by decreasing output volatility of per firm;by decreasing volatility of firm number; by decreasing correlation of these two variables. The research result of this paper provides favorable support for the relationship between financial market development and economic volatility at the industry level.