到底能生多少孩子?——中国人的政策生育潜力估计

How Many Births Can We Have? The Potential Birth Estimation under Policy

本文以1985年以来全国大型人口抽样调查数据为基础,分析生育水平、生育意愿与生育潜力的基本状况和主要特点,对育龄妇女生育意愿与生育潜力的变化范围进行估计,结果表明,目前中国育龄妇女的生育意愿低于更替水平,二孩生育目标占绝对优势,潜在二孩生育的比例不到50%。在此基础上,本文通过随机微观人口仿真模型研究放开"单独"二孩政策和全面放开二孩政策对出生人口规模的影响,认为放开"单独"二孩政策也不会引起很大的出生人口堆积。

Based on national population sampling surveys since 1985,the authors analyzed the fertility level,ideal number of birth and potential birth,and estimated the range of the number of desired birth and the potential fertility of fertility age women.The results are:(1) the current number of desired birth is below the replacement fertility level;(2) the goal of the number of birth is dominated by two-children and the potential desired birth for the second child is less than 50%.Using the stochastic population micro-simulation model,we analyzed the effects of loosening birth control policy(such as allowing 'singleton' women or all women having two children) on the size of the new birth population,and the simulation result shows that 'singleton' women having two children will not result in big baby boom.