环境约束下中国省域经济增长的空间计量分析

Spatial Quantitative Analysis on the Provincial Economic Growth in China under Environmental Constraints

通过构建兼顾污染排放和环境治理的地区经济发展的相对绿色指数RGI,测算了各省的相对绿色GDP,在此基础上运用空间计量模型,对1998～2009年考虑环境因素的中国30个省市的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,环境约束下的中国省域经济增长存在非常强的空间依赖,表现出东高西低的两极分布空间集聚格局。政府环境管制、第三产业比重上升以及外商直接投资对考虑环境因素的省域经济增长起到了稳定的推动作用,间接促进了空间集群的发展。随着时间的推移,企业所有制结构中的国有成分和对外经济发展对环境约束下集聚区域经济发展的抑制作用逐渐减弱,而科技创新的促进作用并不显著。

By constructing Relative Green Index （RGI） of regional economic growth and estimating regional relatively green GDP with consideration on pollution emission and environmental governance, this paper uses model of spatial econometrics to analyze eco- nomic growth data from 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2009 taking environmental factors into account. The analysis shows on ac- count of environmental constraints, provincial economic growth in China has strong spatial dependency, and represents high east low west bipolar distribution of spatial clusters. Government environmental control, increase of tertiary industry proportion and foreign di- rect investment has stably positive effect on provincial economic growth and indirect effect on the development of spatial clusters when considering environmental factors. As time goes by, the inhibition effect of foreign economy development and state-owned part in enter- prise ownership structure on economic development of clusters with environmental constraints has gradually decrease, while innovation support of science and technology does not show expected significant positive relation with green growth of regional economic clusters.