我国火电行业NO_X排放因子的样本容量确定方法

DETERMINATION METHOD STUDY OF SAMPLE CAPACITY FOR NO_X EMISSION FACTOR OF THERMAL POWER SECTOR IN CHINA

目前核算火电行业氮氧化物排放量相对合适的方法是排放因子法,为确定我国火电机组氮氧化物排放因子,需大规模对我国现有运行火电机组进行全面实测。由于我国火电机组数量较大,装机规模等级差别较明显,影响NOX排放的因素复杂,所以在NOX排放因子研究过程中,如何科学确定样本数量及样本范围很重要。准确确定火电机组样本容量是研究火电行业NOX排放因子的前提,需采用抽样的数学统计方法。采用分层抽样方法,考虑样本容量约束条件,主要包括:经费约束、装机规模等级约束、末端治理技术(控氮措施)约束、燃料种类约束和机组区域分布约束,在约束条件下将统计学计算得到的样本容量进行调整和优化,最终得到我国火电行业NOX排放因子样本容量为208台。

At present,the appropriate way to account the NOx emission about thermal power sector is the method of emission factor. In order to determine NOx emission factor of thermal power units in China,it is necessary to do actual measurement among existing running thermal power units all over the county. How to determine sample＇s number and scope scientifically presents its special importance during NOx emission factor research, because China has a large number of thermal power units which are very different in installed capacity levels. Acute determination of sample capacity of thermal power units is the premise of NOx emission factor research. The statistical method sampling is needed. In this paper, group sampling is employed taking constraints into consideration, including funds, installed capacity scale, end control technology （NOx control）, fuel type and unit regional distribution. Sample capacity is adjusted and optimized under the constraints,and at last sample capacity for NOx emission factor of thermal power sector in China is determined as 208 sets.