中国能源消费特征分析——基于完全因素分解模型的实证研究

Feature analysis of Chinese energy consumption—empirical study based on complete decomposition model

采用完全因素分解模型,对1994～2009年中国产业部门和民生部门(居民生活消费)的能源消费特征进行了量化分析.将影响产业部门能源消费变化的因素分解为经济因素、结构因素和效率因素,将影响民生部门能源消费变化的因素分解为人口因素、经济因素和效用因素.实证研究结果表明,产业部门中经济因素是中国能源消费量持续增长的主要原因,效率因素缓解了能源消费量的增长趋势,结构因素没有实现减少能源消费的作用.民生部门的能源消费量正处在快速增长阶段,并且经济因素是民生部门能源消费量增加的主要原因.

Based on the complete decomposition model, a quantitative analysis is conducted on the characteristics of energy consumption of China＇s industry and household departments from 1994 to 2009. The effects on the energy consumption changes of industry departments are decomposed into economy factor, structure factor and efficiency factor. The effects on the energy consumption changes of household departments are decomposed into population factor, economy factor and efficiency factor. The results of the empirical study show that the economy factor is the most important one, which influences China＇s ever-increasing energy consumption. In the other hand, the efficiency factor decreases the growth tendency of energy consumption. However, the structure factor doesnr t reduce the energy consumption significantly. The energy consumption of household departments is in rapid increase stage. The economy factor is the main aspect of the increasing energy consumption in household departments.