中国货币政策规则的实证分析——基于麦克勒姆(McCallum)的视角

An Empirical Study of China's Monetary Policy Rules:A McCallum Perspective

通过选取1998年1季度至2011年4季度间共56个季度的经济增长、通货膨胀、基础货币增长率来验证麦克勒姆规则对实体经济变动的解释能力。结果表明,中国基础货币的增长基本与麦克勒姆规则模拟值趋势大体一致,虽然在部分期间,实际值与模拟值出现了一定程度的偏差,但是总体趋势没有太大变化。这说明中国的货币政策总体上是遵循麦克勒姆规则的,且对人民银行货币政策松紧程度具有一定的指示作用。

This paper selects data of economic growth, inflation and monetary base growth rate from totally 56 quarters ranging from Q1 of 1998 to Q4 of 2011 to verify Mike McCallum rule to the entity economy fluctuant explanation ability. The results show that the growth of monetary base in China primarily corresponds with McCallum rule in its simulation value trend is largely the same, and, though with certain degree of deviation between the actual and the simulated values at certain intervals, the overall trend did not vary much. Thins shows that China＇ s monetary policy 1 generally follows Mike McCallum rule, which serves, to some extent, as an index for the degree of tightness of monetary policy by people＇s Bank of China.