我国通货膨胀的国际影响因素分析——基于结构向量自回归模型的实证研究

Impacts of International Factors on China's Inflation——An Empirical Study Based on SVAR Model

全球金融危机爆发以来,美元持续贬值引起国际原材料价格上涨和国际资本流动扩大。在全球流动性泛滥的背景下,我国通货膨胀屡创新高。文章从美元贬值导致的国际原材料价格波动、国内外利率因素、人民币预期升值三个角度,分别结合国内经济增长,探讨了国际因素对我国通货膨胀的影响。研究发现,国内经济的过热增长是我国通货膨胀的主导因素,但外部冲击特别是国际原油价格对我国通货膨胀的影响也不容忽视。我国不完善的汇率和利率机制,推动了外部因素对我国通货膨胀的冲击,国际因素对我国工业领域通货膨胀的影响相对消费领域而言偏高。

Since the global financial crisis, the depreciation of U.S. dollar has caused the price rising in international raw material and international capital flow expansion. Under the background, China＇s inflation also innovates repeatedly tall The influence of international factors on China＇s inflation through three aspects, which are international fluctuations in raw materials, domestic and foreign interest rate and expected appreciation of RMB, is studied here. It was found that the domestic economy overheating is the dominant factors of inflation in China. But the external impact, especially the international crude oil price, on inflation in China can not be ignored. Our country＇s imperfect exchange rate and interest rate mechanism promotes the influence of external factors on China＇s inflation. The influence of international factors on China＇s industrial areas inflation is much higher than that of consumption field.