我国宏观税负合理区间的分析与判断

Estimation and Analysis on Reasonable Region of Macro-tax Burden in China

运用计量分析方法,考察了1990-2010年我国税收收入和宏观税负的变动情况及趋势,并对税收收入与GDP总量进行了协整分析,证明了二者间存在长期稳定的关系。同时对我国宏观税负进行了时间序列分析,解释了我国宏观税负在不同时间段发展变化的规律及其原因,并结合国际间不同收入等级国家宏观税负之间的比较,分析了我国当前宏观税负水平的合理区间与合理性,指出在我国当前所处的发展阶段,宏观税负水平保持在23%～30%的区间内是较为合适的。

By using quantitative analysis method, this paper examines tax revenue variation and macro-tax burden tendency from 1990 to 2010 in China and makes a co-integration analysis on tax reve-nue and GDP, which shows that they have long and stable relationship. At the same time, this paper analyzes China＇s macro-tax burden and explains the changing rules and reasons of China＇s macro-tax bur-den in different period of time. Based on the international comparision of macro-tax burden in nations with different incomes, this paper analyzes the reasonable region and reasonableness of China＇s current macro-tax burden and points out that it is appropriate to keep the macro-tax burden between 23% and 30% in China＇s current developmental stages.