层次灰色评估法在油库火灾危险评估中的应用

Application of hierarchy gray assessment method in fire risk assessment of oil tankfarm

由于油库火灾事故具有较大的不确定性和随机性,因而体现出较大程度上的灰色特征。采用层次灰色评估法,构建了油库火灾危险评估指标结构体系,进而对油库火灾危险进行总体评估。该方法将层次分析法与灰色评估模型有机结合,通过分析影响油库防火防爆安全的因素,建立了三级油库火灾危险评估层次结构体系,应用层次分析法确定各被评指标的权重集,通过灰色评估模型对专家组打分结果进行处理得到评价矩阵,进而求出油库火灾危险评估结果。以重庆某大型油库为例,采用层次灰色评估法对其火灾危险状况进行评估,应用结果与该油库的实际情况相符,表明该方法具有科学、简捷、实用等特点,可以准确地反映油库防火安全状态。

The hierarchy gray assessment method is used to build a fire hazard assessment index structure system for oil tankfarm so as to carry out an overall assessment on fire hazards of oil tankfarm.This method is then integrated with the analytic hierarchy process and gray evaluation model.The authors analyze the factors affecting anti-fire and anti-explosion of oil tankfarm.A three-level fire hazard assessment hierarchical structure system for oil tankfarm is built,the AHP is used to determine weight set of assessment index and the gray assessment model is used for processing scoring results of the expert group to get the evaluation matrix so as to obtain tankfarm's fire hazard assessment results.Instance of the application results is in line with the actual situation of oil tankfarm,which indicates that the method is characterized by the scientific,simple and practical and can accurately reflect fire safety state oil tankfarm.