松嫩高平原黑土区耕地资源安全及其驱动力分析——以黑龙江省巴彦县为例

Driving Forces and Security of Cultivated Land Resource in Black Soil Zone of Songnen High Plains——A Case of Bayan County,Heilongjiang Province

耕地资源安全是保护耕地和保障国家粮食安全的基础。选取我国重要的商品粮食基地——松嫩高平原黑土区巴彦县为研究区,从自然、经济、社会和生态共4个方面构建耕地资源安全评价指标体系,运用最优组合赋权法确定指标权重,利用综合指数法定量评价巴彦县2000—2009年间耕地资源安全状态,并采用SPSS软件对耕地资源安全驱动力进行主成分分析,引入Cubic曲线,通过非线性回归分析建立耕地资源安全变化模型,对研究区耕地资源安全值及其驱动力进行结果验证。研究结果表明,2000—2009年,巴彦县耕地资源安全状态存在一定差异。2000年研究区耕地资源安全处于较不安全等级;2001—2003年处于极不安全等级;2004—2005年处于较不安全等级;2006年处于稍不安全等级;2007—2009年处于相对安全等级。研究期间耕地资源安全级别转换呈先负向后正向发展。科技经济社会发展动力、自然干扰力和生态质量影响力是促使巴彦县耕地资源安全变化的驱动力。巴彦县耕地资源安全与3类驱动力表现出非常显著的Cubic曲线关系,说明构建的耕地资源安全变化模型符合研究区实际。

Security of cultivated land resources is the basis for cultivated land protection and national food se- curity. Bayan County as an important base for marketable grain production in the black soil zone of Songnen High Plains was selected as research region. Natural, economic, social and ecological indices were incorpo- rated to establish an evaluation index system in this study. The method of optimal combination was applied to establish index weights, and the method of synthetic index was used to quantitatively evaluate the opera- tion status of the security of cultivated land rescaurces in Bayan County from 2000 to 2009. In addition, prin- cipal component analysis was conducted tq analyze the driving forces. Introducing Cubic curve, the model of security changes of cultivated land resom,was was estabished with nonlinear regression analysis to validate the secure values of cultivated land resources and the eontrlbution of driving forces. The results show that the cultivated land security status of the study area differed over time it is less secure in 2000, extremely unse- cure from 2001 to 9,003, less secure from 2004 to 2005, intermediately secure in 2006, and relatively secure from 2007 to 2009. According to the anialysis, the development of technology, economy, and society, the natural disturbance forces, and the ecologicat influence were the main driving forces for the security changes. A significant cubic curve relation ship was found hetweea the cultivated land resource security and these three kinds of driving forces, reflecting high reasonability arid applicability of the model established in this study.