烟台市牟平区生态承载力研究

Evaluation on Ecological Carrying Capacity of Muping District,Yantai City

以生态区建设为政策前提,以烟台市牟平区作为研究对象,从资源承载力、环境承载力以及人类支持能力3个方面,构建了研究区域生态承载力评价指标体系。利用SPSS和Matlab统计软件,将主成分分析法(PCA)和模糊综合评价模型(FSEM)相结合,对研究区域综合生态承载力做出定量评估,探讨了影响生态承载力变化的主要因素。研究结果表明,该区域生态承载力在2006—2010年间处于持续下降阶段,从较高的承载度转变为不可承载状态,其中资源承载力指数下降尤为明显。分析结果与牟平区的实际情况基本相一致,反映了构建的指标体系对生态环境比较敏感,经济迅速发展区域的生态承载力评价具有有效性及适用性,验证了主成分分析法与模糊综合评价模型相结合应用于生态承载力评价的准确性及易操作性。

Aiming at ecological zone construction, Muping district of Yantai City was selected as the study site. An index system for regional ecological carrying capacity（ECC） evaluation was estabhshed, including factors such as resource carrying capacity, environmental carrying capacity and social supporting ability. Using principal components analysis （PCA） and fuzzy synthetic evaluation model（FSEM） with SPSS and Matlab, the changes of ECC in Muping district from 2006 to 2010 were evaluated quantitatively. Further- more, the main factors which caused the changes of the ECC were discussed. The ECC declined continuously from 2006 to 2010, downgraded from good level to incapable level, especially resources carrying capacity. The analysis results of this study reflected well the actual situation of Muping District, indicating the estab- lished evaluation index system is sensitive to regional ecological environment and has acceptable efficiency and applicability to evaluate ECC in the areas with rapid economic development. It was also confirmed that PCA and FSEM can be applied to evaluate the ECC adequately and operationally.