基于灰色线性规划法的新疆南疆干旱区农业系统优化研究——以新疆和田县为例

Optimizing the Structure of Agricultural System Based on the Gray Linear Planning in the Arid Region of South Xinjiang——A Case Study of Hotan County

为了对新疆南疆干旱区科学制定农业发展规划、促进农林牧协调发展和农业增效、农民增收提供决策依据。以新疆和田县为例,通过对农业产业发展现状及存在问题的分析,采用灰色线性规划方法,构建优化模型,进行农业产业结构及生产布局的优化配置和合理布局研究。优化结果表明:通过优化,种植业、林果业、畜牧业占农业总产值的比重分别由2009年的43%、38%、17%调整为33%、45%、19%,农业内部形成了以林为主、以农带牧、以牧促林、农林牧统筹协调发展的产业联动格局;种植业内部结构趋于合理,粮经草的种植比重由74:21:5调整为60:25:15;特色林果业中核桃、红枣、葡萄的优势地位得到巩固,种植面积占总面积的88%,"南核北枣"、"北葡"战略布局全面形成,南部乡镇核桃种植面积占72%,北部乡镇红枣和葡萄种植面积分别占89%和82%;畜牧业牲畜存栏头数达到77.31×104头(只),保持平稳增长,养禽出栏规模为103.8×104只,呈快速增长态势;农业综合效益明显增加,农业净产值达到11.55亿元,年均增长10%,农民人均农业纯收入达到5200元。表明农业产业结构和生产布局优化方案符合当地社会经济发展需要,且具有较强的科学性和可操作性,对当地农业结构调整具有实际指导意义。

This paper was to study the structural optimization of agricultural industry and rational layout of agricultural production, and to provide scientific bases for planning agricultural development, promoting harmonious development of crop, livestock and fruits, enhancing agricultural efficiency and farmers＇ income. By employing the method of Gray Linear Planning （GLP）, a model for optimizing the structure of agricultural system was established basing on the case study of the development situation and existing problems of Hotan County. The optimization results showed that the share of total output value of crop, livestock and fruit was 43%, 38%, 17% respectively in 2009 and adjusted to 33%, 45%, 19% in 2015. The agricultural industry was reshaped, of which the development of crop, livestock and fruit closely tie together with fruits given priority, crop lifting livestock and livestock promoting fruits, and there would have overall harmonious development with the three sectors. Also the inner structure of crop be more reasonable with the share of food grain, cash crop and forage crop was adjusted from 74：21：5 in 2009 to 60：25：15 in 2015; The dominant position of walnut, red dates and grape was further consolidated inside the fruits sector, and the planted area accounted for 88% of the total area. The strategic layout that ＂the southern towns mainly develop walnut and the northern towns mainly develop red dates and grape＂ was taken shape, with the walnut area of southern towns accounted for 72% of total area and the area of red dates and grape of northern towns accounted for 89% and 82% respectively. The stock of livestock reached 77.31 × 10^4 heads, maintaining steadily growth, and the number of poultry reached 103.8 × 10^4 heads with increasing rapidly. The overall agricultural economic benefits was 11.55 × 10^4 Yuan, maintaining significant growth with the agricultural output value-added increased 10% annually and the net agricultural income per farmer would reach 5200 Yuan. The optimization scheme of agricultural structure and spatial layout of production with more scientificalness and operability, conformed to local demand for social economy development, and would have instructional significance for reshaping local agricultural structure.