经济、社会、资源、环境复合系统协调发展研究——以保定市为例

Research on Coordination Development among Society, Economy,Resource and Environment——Based on Baoding

为了构建复合系统协调发展度模型,以经济、社会、资源、环境4个系统为研究对象,运用主成分分析、回归分析以及隶属度函数方法,借助SPSS17.0对保定市1999—2009年间的相关数据进行处理分析和评价。结果表明,保定市复合系统协调性整体水平尚可处于协调发展状态;但系统间协调发展水平仍有待提高,经济、环境、资源3个系统间矛盾尤为突出。经济、环境系统协调性较差,保定市走循环经济路线,使用清洁能源发展低碳经济是解决此问题的关键;资源、环境系统间协调性亦差,应提高资源利用率,保护耕地、改变燃料结构,发展新能源产业。社会、经济子系统发展态势突出,应注重资源、环境子系统的均衡发展,走可持续发展道路。

In order to get the coordinated development condition, the author established the coordinated development degree model, using the host ingredient analysis, regression analysis and function of subjection degree to evaluate the coordinated development of economy-environment system in Baoding. Based on the data of Baoding in 1999 to 2009. It provided the reference for Baoding＇ s sustainable development problem. The results showed that the compound system was fair in a coordinated development state with its coordination level. But coordination development level between systems still needs to be improved and the conflict among economy, environment and resource was very outstanding. The systems of economy and environment was in poor coordination, so going circular economy route, using clean energy and developing low carbon economy is the key to solve the problem. Coordination between systems of resources and environment was also poor. It should strengthen raising resource utilization rate, protecting arable land, changing fuel structure and developing new energy industry. Development situation of social and economic systems was outstanding. It should notice the balanced development of resources and environment systems and going road of sustainable development.