北京市猪肉市场行情变动规律的研究

The Study of Varying Regulation about Pork Price in Beijing

为了研究北京市猪肉价格的波动规律,确定其波动周期,采用水平指标分析、速度指标分析、变异系数、季节调整模型以及HP滤波等方法对2002—2011年北京市8大批发市场猪肉市场行情数据进行了分析。结果表明:北京市批发市场猪肉年度价格呈逐步上升趋势,2002—2011年北京市猪肉价格经历了3个完整的波动周期,每个波动周期大致为38个月;在年度内猪肉价格走势呈"一谷一峰"型,高价区主要集中在6—12月;年度内上市量与价格基本呈反向关系。因此,应加强生猪生产信息和市场信息监测,以保障猪肉足量供应,稳定猪肉市场价格。此外,根据猪肉市场行情的变动规律,完善储备肉的收储和投放工作机制对于稳定猪肉市场价格也是非常必要的。

In this paper, level indicators analysis, speed indicators analysis, coefficient of variation, the seasonal adjustment model and the HP filter were used to analyze the price of pork and the listed amount from 2002 to 2011 using the data of the eight biggest wholesale markets in Beijing, in order to study the law of the pork price volatility and discerned the fluctuations cycle of pork price.The results show that： the price of pork increased in waves from 2002 to 2011. The pork price had gone through 3 complete fluctuation cycles, each fluctuation cycle of the pork price roughly experiences 38 months. In the year, the price of pork was a ＇peak-valley＇ type, the pork price was high from July to December, and the listed amount basically changed in reverse with the pork price. Therefore, in order to ensure an adequate supply of the pork and stabilize the pork price, pig production and market information monitoring should be strengthened. In addition, according to the pork market varying regulation, improve the pork purchasing and storage and reserve pork allocation working mechanism is also very necessary to stabilize the pork price.