2011—2012年冬季山东半岛北部沿海冰情趋势预测

The prediction of sea ice in the northern coast of Shandong Peninsula in 2011—2012

较详细地绘出了该海域内50年来海水温度的变化周期及分布特征,并利用热平衡原理和数理统计方法,预测2011—2012年度海冰发展趋势。经多年检验该方法较为稳定、有效,能够较准确的预报局部海域冰情。

The periodic variation and characteristics of surface sea temperature is described in detail in the northern coast of Shandong Peninsula during the last 50 years. By using the principle of thermal equilibrium and mathematical statistic method, the developing tendency of the sea ice is predicted in 2011-2012. Being validated several years, the method is proved to be stable and effective for the sea ice prediction in some local regions.