基于Vensim仿真的城市机动车耗油量预测方法研究

Research on a Vensim simulation based prediction method of urban vehicle fuel consumption

正确预测城市机动车耗油量,对科学评估城市交通环境污染及制定相关政策都具有重要意义。本文基于系统动力学的原理和方法,构造了城市机动车耗油量的因果关系图和系统流图,并将影响燃油消耗量的内、外部因素一并考虑加以量化,提出了消耗量预测模型。最后运用Vensim仿真软件,对北京市小汽车燃油消耗总量进行了实例分析,验证了模型的正确性。

Correct prediction of fuel consumption of urban cars has great significance to scientifically evaluate urban traffic environment pollution and even to formulate the relevant policies.This paper constructs the causal diagram and system flow chart of urban car fuel consumption with the theory and method of system dynamics.We quantify the factors influencing fuel consumption and present a predictive model.We eventually analyze fuel consumption of Beijing as a concrete example and verify its correctness with simulation software,Vensim.