中国生物质发电产业发展动力因子研究

Study on Driving Factor of Biomass Power Industry Development in China

介绍了中国生物质发电产业的市场环境和政策环境。基于此,识别生物质发电产业发展的内生动力因子和外源动力因子,并利用计量经济学理论对动力因子的相关性进行分析。建立解释结构模型研究动力因子之间的关系,分析经济要素之间的作用机理。结果表明:所有的动力因子通过不同的途径和方式最终指向政策和资源禀赋因子;能源安全因子、环境保护因子、农村发展因子影响电力需求,投资影响电力供给;合理的要素成本价格需要科学的政策组合进行有效支持。

This paper describes the market and policy environment of biomass power industry, and recognizes the endogenous and exogenous driving factors of biomass power industry development,and analyzes the correlations between driving factors by the econometric theory. Then it uses the interpretative structural modeling to study the relationships between driving factors,and discusses the action mechanism between eco- nomic factors. The results show as follows： all of driving factors come to the factors of policy and resource endowment by different ways or means~ energy security factor, environmental, protection factor and rural development factor affect the demand for electricity in market, and investment affect power supply; reasonable cost price needs a scientific policy-mix to support effectively.