中国城乡居民消费模型的估计及实证分析

The Experimental Analysis and the Estimate of the Consumption Model of Chinese Urban and Rural Residents

该文通过建立回归模型和ELES模型,对2000-2010年的中国城乡居民的收入与消费支出情况进行模型估计,得出收入和消费的依赖关系:人均可支配收入(人均纯收入)的多少直接影响人均消费性支出的规模;城镇居民中消费和收入之间存在着一定的滞后性,而在农村这一滞后性表现得相对微弱。在此基础上估计出各类消费品的支出及其构成,并求得边际消费倾向、需求的收入弹性以及价格弹性等。最后提出,应该进一步有的放矢地制定和完善相应的扩大内需的经济政策以提升城乡居民的消费意愿,扩大居民的消费需求,促进中国经济的持续增长。

By using the data from 2000 to 2010 and by using regression model and ELES model, this paper estimated the income and consumption of city residents and rural residents and arrived at a dependant re- lation between income and consumption. The amount of Per capita disposable income（per capita net in- come） affects the size of per capital annual expenditure on consumption; there is certain hysteresis be- tween consumption and income for town residents, but in rural areas the hysteresis is relatively weak. On this basis, the paper estimates expenditures on various consumables and figures out the marginal propensity to consume,income elasticity of demands, and price elasticity. To summary, the paper suggests that proper economic policies to expand domestic demand should be made and improved to raise urban and rural residents ; consumption desire, expand their consumption demands to boost the constant growth of China＇ s economy.