国债融资能否影响居民消费需求——基于城镇居民经验数据的实证分析

Will National Debt Financing Impact Residents' Consumption Needs?——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Urban Residents' data

"传统的政府债务观点"与"李嘉图等价观点"对国债融资的消费效应存在很大的争议。本文基于生命周期假说,将国债幻觉引入基本消费函数,区分私人部门持有的国债资产和其他资产两部分,运用中国宏观经济数据实证分析了国债对城镇居民消费的影响。实证结果表明:国债对城镇居民具有一定的"财富效应";人均可支配收入仍是居民消费的基础;其他金融资产对城镇居民具有"负"的财富效应,而住房资产对城镇居民而言具有"正"的财富效应。

There is a big controversy for the consumption effect of debt between the traditional view of gov- ernment and Ricardo equivalence. Based on the life cycle hypothesis, this paper introduced the treasury hal- lucinations into the basic consumption function, put the private sector＇ s property in two parts which are debt assets andother assets, and analyzed the consumption effect of national debt of the urban residents. The em- pirical results show that： there is the wealth effect for urban residents. The per capita disposable income is still the foundation of residents＇ consumption. Other financial assets have negative wealth effect, and housing assets have a positive wealth effect.