进口倾销对我国产业损害的认定:基于局部均衡COMPAS模型的理论与实证研究

Determing industry injury in China due to dumping:Theoretical and empirical research based on COMPAS model

基于近年来发展的局部均衡COMPAS模型,首先从理论上揭示倾销行为如何通过价格机制对进口竞争行业的产出、价格以及收益等指标产生影响,然后基于2006-2009年我国肉鸡产品市场的有关数据,利用COMPAS模型就美国白羽肉鸡产品的倾销行为对我国肉鸡行业的损害大小进行了实证评估,模拟结果表明:在2006-2009年期间美国白羽肉鸡倾销行为导致国产肉鸡产品的价格大约下跌了4%,产出下降了近13%,全行业销售收入减少了近17%.模拟结果不仅印证了理论分析的结论,而且与近年来我国肉鸡行业的现实情况基本吻合.

Nowadays most countries, China included, use index system approach in industry test. However, because this approach can not distinguish the influence from that of many non-dumping factors on the concerned industry, it discounts the credibility of research results. Based on the COMPAS model, which developed fast in recent years, this paper explore theoretically how dumping affects the import-competitive industry＇s output, prices and income through price mechanism. Then based on the data of the China＇s anti-dumping case agaist chicken products form USA in 2009, this paper did an empirical test on how the dumping of chicken products imported from USA affects China＇s chicken industry. The empirical results show that China＇s chicken product＇s price fell by about 4%, output fell by 13%, industry-wide income fell by 17% because of the dumping of imported chicken products from USA from 2006 to 2009. The empirical results are in line with the results of the theoretical analysis and the reality of China＇s chicken industry.