基于实物期权的基础设施投资担保负担测度及其风险管理研究

The Measure of Guarantee Burden and Risk Management of Infrastructure Investment based on Real Options

从项目筹资模式、基础设施投资担保现状及其运营模式视角出发,研究我国基础设施投资担保负担测度及其风险管理的问题。利用或有负债思想,分析了下限式担保、上下限式担保、比例上下限式担保三类担保的期权特性及其影响因素;运用实物期权方法,在不同担保方式下构建了担保负担评估模型,并对相应的项目投资担保负担进行了评估,结果显示,投资收益担保是担保负担最直接、最主要的来源,也是政府方的或有负债,基于此,在融资谈判中,政府方可以通过调整项目投资担保水平和项目投资担保方式来控制担保负担和锁定担保风险。

Based on the analysis of financing model,the mode and development of guarantee,the researches on the burden and risk management of guarantee towards infrastructure investment is proposed in the paper.Using the method of contingent liability,the option characteristics and influencing factors of different guarantee modes,such as upperlimit guarantee,downlimit guarantee and guarantee with double limits;using the method of real option,the model to evaluating the burden of guarantee under different modes is built,and burdens under different styles are evaluated accordingly.According to the relationship between capital budgeting and investment decision,the result shows that investment income caused by the secured project means a contingent liability for the government,which is also the most direct and most important source of the security burden.Based on this,the government may control the security burden by adjusting the level of projects security and the way of security in the financing negotiations.