2011年以来经济增长速度下降的性质与稳中求进之策

The Nature of Economic Growth Rate Decline since 2011 and Strategies for Promotion While Maintaining Economic Stability

本文认为2011年以来中国GDP增长速度的下降性质是新一轮经济周期性的,此次经济周期既是国际金融危机外部冲击和总需求下降的影响,更是内部经济结构变化所致。内部结构性变化表现在:一是人口结构老年化加快和劳动力供给出现相对的和结构性的短缺;二是居民收入分配结构的变化导致消费需求不足;三是东南沿海地区产业结构升级困难,中西部地区尚未形成转移产业增长极。稳中求进之策是短期内依靠宏观经济政策刺激需求防止GDP增速下滑过大过快,尤其是扩大政府财政对农民和农村的公共物品供给,长期之计是需要制度创新与结构调整。

This paper holds that the nature of Chinese GDP growth rate decline since 2011 is a new business cyclical decline. Causes of this business cycle include both the external impacts of international financial crises and domestic aggregate demand decline, especially changes in the internal economic structure. The internal structural changes concern three aspects ： （ 1 ） the constant quickening of demographic aging and relative and structural labor supply shortage; （2） consumer demand insufficiency caused by structural changes in people＇s income distribution; （3） difficuhy in upgrading industrial structure in Southeast littoral and lack of transferred industrial growth poie in Central and West China. Strategies for promotion while maintaining economic stability are short - term macroeconomic policies to stimulate aggregate demand and to prevent fast and widespread GDP decline, especially through expanding supplies to farmers and rural public goods by governmental revenue. Long - term strategies require institutional innovation and industrial structure adjustments.