基于投影寻踪聚类思想的区域旱灾综合风险动态评估模型

Regional Drought Comprehensive Risk Dynamic Evaluation Model Based on Projection Pursuit Clustering Method

从系统理论的角度分析了区域旱灾系统的结构体系,将区域旱灾风险分为致旱因子危险性、孕灾环境不稳定性和承灾体脆弱性三个子系统,并分析了各子系统的主要因素,从而建立了区域旱灾系统综合风险评估指标体系,并根据区域旱灾综合风险评估的目的,将动态综合评估方法和区划聚类评估方法相结合,建立了基于投影寻踪聚类思想的区域旱灾综合风险动态评估模型,为区域旱灾综合风险评估提供了参考依据。

Based on system theory, we analyze regional drought structural system and divide drought risk system into three subsystems, which includes hazard-formation factors, hazard-formation environments and hazard-affected bodies. After analysis of the main factors of these subsystems, we establish a regional drought comprehensive risk evaluation in- dex system. According to the purpose of regional drought risk evaluation, regional drought comprehensive risk dynamic e- valuation model based projection pursuit clustering idea is established by combining dynamic evaluation model and zoning clustering evaluation method. Thus, it provides a foundation for regional drought comprehensive risk evaluation.