泰国政治转型中的政商关系演化:过程、条件与前景

The Development of Government-Business Relations in the Political Transformation of Thailand:Process,Prerequisite and Prospect

本文基于政治权力结构的"同心圆"框架,从利益集团的视角对泰国政治转型中的政商关系演化进行探讨。本文认为,20世纪60年代以来的泰国政商关系先后经历了"依附式"、"协商式"和"对等式"结构,并正在转向"一体式"结构。商人群体推动政商关系演化的根本动力在于结构性经济利益诉求;商人群体在政治权力竞争中胜出的核心保证是雄厚的资金支持,关键策略是依托新兴利益集团突破既有的权力结构。从短期来看,泰国保革之争还将持续,政商关系难以顺利实现从"对等式"到"一体式"的转型;从中期来看,新资本集团有可能建构稳定的"政商一体"结构,以适应体制改革的客观需要;从长期来看,随着体制改革成功,政商关系可能回归"对等式"或"协商式"结构。

Based on the ＂Concentric Circles＂ model of political power structure, this paper analyzes the develop-ment of government-business relations in the political transformation of Thailand from the perspective of interest groups. This paper considers that, since 1960s, the government-business relations of Thailand has experienced the Dependence-Style, the Consultation-Style, the Equality-Style, and is transforming to the Integration-Style. The structural economic interest demand is the fundamental motive force for the merchant groups to promote the develop- ment of the government-business relations. The abundant political fund is the essential assurance for the merchant groups to win the competition of the political power, and relying on other emerging interest groups to break through the existing structure of political power is the key strategy. In the short term, the conflict between the conservative and progressive will continue. It will be hard for government-business relations to transform from Equality-Style to Integration-Style. In the medium term, the neo-capital group is likely to form a stable ＂Business-Rule-Govern-ment＂ structure, in order to carry out the system reform. In the long term, with the success of the system reform, the government-business relations may go back to the Equality-Style or Consultation-Style.