沈阳市经济增长率与房地产投资增长率关系的实证分析

Relationship between Economic Growth Rate and Real Estate Investment Growth Rate in Shenyang City

根据2000年—2010年沈阳市经济增长率和房地产投资增长率的统计数据,利用回归分析、格兰杰因果关系检验和变动趋势等计量经济学方法对沈阳市经济增长率和房地产投资增长率之间的关系进行实证分析.得出了沈阳市经济增长率与房地产投资增长率之间存在长期协整关系,互为因果、互相促进;短期内沈阳市经济增长率对房地产投资增长率变化不敏感.最后,在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议.

According to the statistics of economic growth rate and real estate investment growth rate from 2000 to 2010 in Shenyang City, the relationshio between these two is empirically analyzed using several econometric methods, such as regression analysis, Granger causality test, and changes in trends method, etc. The fingdings show that there is a long-term co-integration relation between these two. The two growth rates reinforce each other and promote each other. In a short term, the economic growth rate is not sensitive to the change of real estate investment growth rate. Finally, relevant policy is recommended on the basis of the study results.