中国与世界保险市场的联动性研究——寿险与财险市场的比较

Analysis of the Co-movement of China and Global Insurance Markets——Comparable Analysis of Life Insurance and Non-life Insurance

作为世界经济的一部分,我国的保险业与世界保险业的联系越来越紧密。我国保险市场不断学习世界保险市场的先进经验,世界保险市场的发展和变化也不断影响着我国保险市场。许多学者基于经济基础说和市场传染说的理论研究了中国证券市场与世界市场之间同步变化的现象及原因。本文借鉴证券市场联动性分析的理论和方法,利用中国和世界保险市场的数据进行了深入研究。分析结果表明,由于经济规律的同质性,中国寿险市场与世界寿险市场的发展轨迹基本相似,而财险市场的长期均衡性却不明显。短期来看,世界保险市场对中国保险市场的影响不大。但是,世界财产保险市场对中国财产保险市场单向溢出影响还是比较大的。特别是当世界财产保险市场发生了比较大的波动时,对中国财产保险市场的影响就更大。

As a component of the global economy,the ties between the Chinese insurance market and its global counter- parts are stronger and stronger. The Chinese insurance market is constantly drawing on advanced experiences of the inter- national market,while the development of global insurance market also constantly affects that of China. Based on the eco- nomic fundamentals theory and market contagion theory, some researches had explained the phenomenon and causes of the co-movement of the global securities markets. The paper borrowed on the securities market＇s global co-movement the- ory and method to conduct a research into the similar phenomenon in the insurance market with the insurance market da- ta of China and the global counterparts. The results showed that,due to the homogeneity of economic laws ,the co-move- ment of Chinese insurance market and global insurance market was very significant ,especially in the life insurance mar- ket. But the development of non-life insurance markets followed a significantly different pace and track. On the other hand, in short term, the global insurance market affected Chinese insurance market slightly. But the global non-life insur- ance market had significant unidirectional spillover effect on Chinese non-life insurance market. Especially,when there was a large fluctuation in the global non-life insurance market,the impacts on China＇s non-life insurance market were more significant.