地震应急能力指数的量化评估指标体系研究

The Quantitative Assessment Study of Risk Emergency-Response Capacity Index for Earthquake

通过科学的指标构建来量化地震风险的预警与应急能力已经成为整合性风险管理框架下地震风险管理的发展方向。本文利用灾害学的量化评估方法,根据统计指数的构建理论,从统计指数的指标构建到实际应用,设计出一套较为系统的地震应急能力指数,希望以此丰富地震风险管理中的研究方法。本文的研究结果显示,从横向对比上看,统计时点影响和经济价值影响使得汶川地震的各项地震应急能力指数数值结果明显高于雅江—康定地震;而从纵向对比上看,两次地震的测算结果均表明地震预测与监控能力指数的综合权重最高,因此在未来的工作中需要增加地震预防过程中的投入,提高地震的预测与监控水平。

Constructing indicators to quantify advance warning and emergency responding for earthquake risk man- agement has become the future direction of the earthquake risk management under integrated risk management framework. Based on quantitative analysis methods in disaster science and statistical index construction principle, this paper designed a complete set of emergency response capacity index of earthquake risk management from theory indicators construction to practical application,in order to develop earthquake risk management research methods. The conclusions were：From horizontal comparison, as the result of time point and economic value factors, the num- ber of earthquake emergency response capability index in Yajiang-Kangding earthquake was higher than Wenchuan earthquake;From longitudinal comparison, the combined weight of prediction and monitoring capability index was the highest in both earthquakes, so we need to increase investment and improve management in earthquake predic- tion and monitoring.