当前国内外油气行业发展形势及展望

Development and outlook of domestic and foreign oil & gas industry

2012年上半年,石油需求低迷,供应充足,库存高企,供需从2011年同期的偏紧转为宽松;国际油价波动较大,一季度升至2008年金融危机后的最高水平,二季度大幅回落。天然气市场需求和产量小幅增长,供需保持平衡;北美、欧洲、亚太三大天然气区域市场价差扩大。全球油气并购活动持续低迷,北美非常规气并购市场迅速降温。国际大石油公司生产经营指标下滑。中国石油需求增速大幅回落,对外依存度再创新高;成品油价格前升后降,石油石化行业效益持续下滑;天然气消费快速增长,进口量大幅上升,进口气价倒挂严重。下半年,预期世界经济依然疲软。石油供需仍将宽松,油价略有回升,但将低于去年同期水平;天然气供需继续平衡,三大市场价差仍将维持。中国经济企稳,国内成品油需求有望平稳增长,但涨幅低于预期;天然气将保持消费量与产量、进口量齐增的态势。

The first half of 2012 saw sluggish demand, ample supply and high stocks of oil; thus supply & demand, which was tight in the same period of 2011, became relatively loose. There have been wide fluctuations in international oil prices, which in the first quarter rose to the highest level since the financial crisis of 2008, and fell in the second quarter. Market demand and the production of natural gas grew slightly; supply & demand remained balanced; price gaps among the three major regional natural gas markets - North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific - widened. Global oil & gas mergers and acquisitions remained stagnant; the North American unconventional gas merger and acquisition market rapidly cooled down. Major international oil companies experienced a decline in their production and operation indexes; focusing on investment results, they optimized their investment portfolios and developed advantageous downstream businesses on a selective basis. China's crude and refined oil demand growth rate dropped dramatically, market supply & demand was generally loose and dependence on imports reached a new high; refined oil prices rose before falling, and the benefits of the petroleum & petrochemical industry continued declining; as for natural gas, with a rapid growth in consumption, a steady increase in domestic production and a considerable rise in imports, its supply & demand was basically balanced, while the sales prices of imported gas were lower than purchase prices, and gas enterprises suffered huge losses. The world economy is expected to remain in a slump in the second half of 2012. Oil supply & demand will remain loose, oil prices will rally; natural gas supply & demand will remain balanced, and the gas price pattern of the three major markets will be maintained. The Chinese economy will remain stable, and domestic product oil demand is expected to grow steadily; the simultaneous increase in the consumption, production and import volume of natural gas will continue.