区域能源消费与经济增长关系的实证研究——以长三角、珠三角和海西经济区为例

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Regional energy consumption and economic growth——Take the Economic Zone of Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Western Taiwan Straits for Example

对1986—2009年间长三角、珠三角和海西经济区的能源消费与经济增长之间关系进行了比较分析。利用协整理论和误差修正模型分析,发现在不考虑结构变化的情况下三个地区能源消费总量与实际生产总值之间都不存在线性协整关系;Granger因果关系分析发现,长三角地区存在能源消费总量与实际生产总值之间的双向因果关系,节能减排政策的实施将会影响经济增长,而珠三角只存在实际生产总值到能源消费总量的单向因果关系,节能减排政策的实施不会影响经济增长。

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the economic zone of Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Western Taiwan Straits in 1986--2009 is analyzed in this paper. The results obtained by using cointegration theory and error correction model show that no linear cointegration relationship exists between energy consumption and real GDP in any of the three regions. However, in considering the case of structural breaks, cointegration relationship between variables can be found in economic zone of Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, but not in economic zone of Western Taiwan Straits. The results obtained by using Granger causality a- nalysis show that there is two-way Granger causality between energy consumption and real GDP in economic zone of Yangtze River Delta. The implementation of energy conservation policy will affect economic growth in this region. In the economic zone of Pearl River Delta, there exists only one-way Granger causality from real GDP to energy con- sumption. And the implementation of energy conservation policy will not affect economic growth in this region.