基于马尔可夫模型的土地利用变化研究

Land use changes based on markov model

利用1990年、2002年两期TM影像数据,基于马尔可夫模型,借助MAPGIS,ARCGIS的空间分析功能,从土地利用变化的数量、土地利用类型之间的转移等角度,对沁阳市土地利用动态变化进行了分析.结果表明,在人类活动和自然因素的影响下,沁阳市12年间土地利用结构发生了明显改变,耕地面积减少,建设用地和未利用地增加(建设用地和未利用地面积的增加主要是通过占用耕地来实现的),三者之间的转换较为频繁.受退耕还林、耕地动态平衡政策的影响,林地面积增加,部分建设用地、水域、园地通过整理复垦变为耕地.

The changes of land use in Qinyang City of Jiaozuo were analyzed based on a Markov model and the spatial analysis function of ARCGIS, MAPGIS and Landsat of TM images from 1990 and 2002. Results showed that during the period of 1990--2002, the composition characteristics of the land system changed slightly due to the combined influence of human activities and natural factors. Cropland were reducing significantly, and development land and unused land increased year by year. On the other hand, The increases in development land areas and unused land areas were primarily caused by the occupancy of cropland. Cropland, development land and unused land were transferred frequently each other. Woodland was determined by returning farmland to a forest project. The development land, waters and garden plot were mainly converted from cropland as a result of the influence of policy cropland protection.