人民币升值对区际贸易结构变动的影响——基于省际面板数据模型的实证分析

The Impact of RMB Appreciation on the Structural Changes of Inter-regional Trade:Based on Empirical Analysis of the Inter-provincial Panel Data Model

将各省的贸易结构分为一般贸易和加工贸易,采用2006年1月份到2011年12月份的月度性数据,基于面板数据模型和VAR模型的脉冲响应函数动态变化路径的实证分析表明,人民币升值对我国一般贸易的负向总体影响高于对加工贸易的总体影响;东、西部地区的一般贸易受其负向影响最大,对东、中、西部地区的加工贸易的负向影响基本相同;人民币升值对贸易结构的影响程度显著高于各省外商直接投资、国际大宗商品价格和世界需求等因素的影响。

The article will be the trade structure of the provinces are divided into general trade and processing trade, Using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2011, Empirical analysis shows that based on panel data model and the VAR model impulse response functions dynamically change the path, Appreciation of the RMB negative overall impact on China＇s general trade higher than the overall impact of the processing trade, The general trade of the eastern and western regions by the largest negative impact, the processing trade of Eastern and central and western regions are basically the same impact. The impact of RMB appreciation on the trade structure significantly higher than the GDP of provinces, foreign direct investment, international commodity prices and world demand factors.