基于适应性预期的房地产价格驱动因素分析

Driving Factors of the Real Estate Price Based on Adaptive Expectations

从需求和供给两个角度出发,通过构建基于适应性预期的供需均衡模型,得出市场均衡时房地产价格决定因素的函数,并以此考察房地产价格波动及其影响因素之间的关系。同时,定性分析货币供应量、原材料价格指数、土地开发面积指数、居民通胀预期指数、人均可支配收入等因素对房地产销售价格的影响机制,通过单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型分析、脉冲响应分析等计量研究方法,对中国房地产价格波动的驱动因素进行实证分析,并针对研究结论提出相应的政策建议。

This paper considers the supply and demand which drive China＇s real estate price to fluctu- ate. By constructing a equilibrium model of supply and demand based on adaptive expectations, a function about the relationship between the equilibrium price of real estate and its decisive factors has been built. This function has also been regarded as reference of further empirical analysis on the relationship. Simultaneous- ly, this paper gives a qualitative analysis on the mechanism of how factors such as money supply, raw mate- rial price index, land development area index, the inflation expectations index of residents and disposable personal income affect real estate price. By using the unit root test, Granger-test of causality, VAR and IRF, this paper offers an empirical analysis on the quantitative mechanism of how the factors drive China＇s real estate price to fluctuate. At last, some suggestions are put forward according to the research conclu- sions.