开封市近60年温度和降水年际变化分析

Characteristics of Climate Change in Kaifeng in Recent 60 Years

研究基于开封市1951—2010年逐日气温和降水量资料,采用滑动平均、趋势分析和Yamamoto检验法,探讨了开封近60年的气候变化特征.结果表明:研究时段内开封市年及四季平均气温均呈上升的趋势,年平均气温在1993年发生了一次突变,其后气温达到一个更显著的增暖时期,21世纪头10年是开封市近60年以来的最高温期.开封市年及各季降水量除秋季外均呈上升趋势,以夏季降水增多最为明显,研究时段内无明显的突变过程.开封市未来几年气候存在着向暖湿变化的可能性.

By adopting the methods of moving average, trend analysis and Yamamoto method, the climate changecharacteristics since recent 60 years were analyzed with precipitation and temperature data of kaifeng from 1951 to 2010. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature appeared to be ascending. Annual mean temperature had a sudden change in 1993,since then the warmer period had appeared. The period from 1990s to now is the warmest in the recent 60 years. Annual preciptations and seasonal precipitations all showed the trend of ascending except autumn, and it increased remarkably in summer. Annual precipitations did not happen the sudden change. It will have the possibility of warming and wetting for Kaifeng in the coming years.