豫西山区一次典型防雹作业方案设计及效果评估

Scheme Design and Effect Evaluation of a Typical Hail Suppression Operation over Western Henan

利用2011年7月17日发生在豫西地区灵宝市寺河乡的一次典型防雹作业个例,从冰雹云的正确判别、作业方案的科学制定以及作业效果的尝试性评估等方面进行详细分析,设计了一种利用多普勒雷达产品确定作业部位、催化剂量和发射时机的防雹作业方案,为豫西地区科学开展人工防雹作业及其效果评估提供了一种新的思路:1)冰雹云的正确识别是人工防雹成功的关键,短期天气背景、气象要素场特征、探空资料以及雷达指标的分析可以及时判别出冰雹云。2)作业器具的选择、作业时机的把握、作业部位的判断、催化剂量的确定等都是决定人工防雹作业是否科学有效的重要因素,作业前必须认真科学地制定出防雹作业方案,减小人为的不确定性。3)在开展作业效果评估时,选取的对比云必须是与目标云具有相似的天气背景、云体特征和产生源地;另外,灾情实况也是效果评估的一个重要方面。

Based on the typical case of hail suppression operation which occurred in Sihe township of Western Henan on July 17, 2011, a detailed analysis is conducted on correct discrimination of hail cloud, scientific development of scheme design as well as the tentative evaluation of the operating effect etc. A kind of operation scheme which uses Doppler radar products to determine the operational site, a- mount of catalyst and emission timing of hail suppression is designed, and a new thought is provided for the scientific development of artificial hail suppression operation and its effect evaluation in Western Henan. The results are as follows. 1） Hail cloud recognition is the key to the success of artificial hail suppression; short-term weather background, characteristics of meteorological element field, radiosonde data and radar indicator analysis can identify hail cloud in time. 2） The choice of operation apparatus, grasping operation timing, operation site judgment, catalyst quantity determination are all the effective factors which decide whether the artificial hail suppression operation succeeds or not. Before the operation a scientifically operation scheme must he carefully conducted, to reduce the artificial uncertainty. 3 ） When operation effect is evaluated, selected contrast cloud must have similar weather background, cloud features and generating source cloud with the target cloud. In addition, disaster situation is an important aspect of evaluation.