粮食安全与玉米增产潜力的研究

Research on Food Security and Potential of MaizeYield Increase

在分析中国人口增长对粮食需求增长的基础上,综合考虑了灌溉农业、雨养农业以及粮食和经济作物的种植结构发展趋势变化。研究表明,在粮食自给率95%的情况下,保证全国年播种面积1亿hm2以上,生产粮食5亿t以上,加之国际市场调剂小于5%的交易量,即可保持粮食供需的平衡;另外,从单产提高的主要措施、技术特征和增产机理角度,分析了50多年来中国玉米生产技术的变化。从1949至2007年中国玉米单产每公顷提高了4 205.1kg,增幅为437.3%,年均增加85.84kg/hm2;总产由1 241.8万t提高到15 230.0万t,增加了12.3倍,其中单产增加的贡献占68.4%、种植面积扩大的贡献为31.6%,总产量的提高主要依赖于单产的增加。在此基础上,提出了玉米增产的技术对策。

Based on a comprehensive analysis of population growth and grain demand, the development trends of irrigated agriculture, rain-fed agriculture as well as grain and the planting of economic crops are analyzed. With the grain self-sufficient rate of 95%, above 100,000,000 hm2 sown area every year, above 500,000,000 t grain, and trading volume less than 5 % in the international market, the balance of supply and demand will be maintained. Moreover, the change and development of maize production techniques are analyzed from the perspectives of main measures, technical characteristics and mechanisms for per unit area yield increase in the past 5 decades and more in China in this paper. The results show that maize yield per unit area in China increased by 4 205.1 kg or 437. 3% from 1949 to 2007, with annual growth rate of 85.84 kg/hm^2, and the total yield increased from 12. 418 million tons to 152. 30 million tons, an increase of 12. 3 times, of which 68. 4% was contributed by yield increase per unit area and 31.6% by planting area expansion. Total yield increase relies mainly on yield increase per unit area.