基于试验损失的指数型产品Bayes可靠性试验设计

Bayes reliability experimental design for exponential distributed product based on experimental loss

依据Bayes理论,对可靠性参数服从指数分布的装备产品进行了统计验证试验设计.综合考虑弃真和采伪的风险损失以及可靠性试验成本,建立了基于试验损失的可靠性验证试验设计模型.对于给定的失效数,运用0-1损失函数,按照验后期望损失最小的原则,给出了最短试验截止时间的计算方法.根据平均风险准则,推导出了弃真和采伪两类风险的计算公式.最后通过算例验证了方法的有效性.

The reliability demonstration experimental design for exponential distributed products was made based on Bayes theory. Considering the loss caused by the producer＇s risk and consumer＇s risk, and reliability experimental cost, the reliability experimental design model based on experimental loss （REDMEL） was con- structed for the reliability experimental design of exponential distributed products. For given failure numbers, the least experimental time calculation method was presented, under the principle of minimizing the posterior expected loss, according to the 0-1 loss function. Considering average risk criteria, the formulas of the producer＇s risk and consumer＇s risk were deduced. At last, an example was given to show the validity of the method.