美国量化宽松货币政策对中国通货膨胀的影响分析

Impacts of American Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on China's Inflation

中国CPI自2011年7月达高点6.5%以来,到2012年8月降到2.0%,这是国内宏观调控取得的显著成效。但有些外部因素却是不能调控的,如美国2012年9月14日推出的第三次量化宽松货币政策(QE3)是否会给中国带来新的通货膨胀压力?本文通过分析2008年11月和2010年11月美联储先后两次量化宽松货币政策对中国的实际影响,以此推测QE3对中国通货膨胀的可能影响。研究设计从大宗商品价格、国际资本流动两方面进行理论分析,选取2009年1月-2011年12月的月度数据进行实证检验。研究表明,美国这一政策给中国带来了输入型通货膨胀,并且意外发现中国存款准备金率上调过度。

China＇ s CPI reached the peak at 6.5% in July 2011 and slumped to 2.0% in August 2012, which resulted from China＇ s macro- economic control policies. Neveaheless, some external factors are uncontrollable. For example, will QE3 implemented on September 14, 2012 will bring a new round of inflation to China？ This paper analyzes the actual effects of QE1 and QE2 on China from November 2008 to November 2010, and predicts the possible effects of QE3 on China＇ s inflation. It makes theoretical analysis of price of bulk stock, international capital movement, and selects the monthly data from January 2009 to December 2011 to conduct empirical study. The findings show that QE has bronght imported inflation to China, and we accidentally discover that China＇ s required reserve ratio was raised excessively.